The Croatian economy has many sectors that are directly influenced by climate and therefore may be affected by climate change. These sectors account for an equivalent of almost 25% of the economy – almost EUR 10 billion per year.
The agricultural sector has already shown significant vulnerability to climate variability in recent years, experiencing severe damage from drought, floods and hail. Furthermore, sectors such as fishing and mariculture, electricity production from hydropower and seaside tourism are all linked directly to climate.
How might climate change affect human development in Croatia? Will there be any positive impacts?
TourismTourism generates about 20% of GDP and 28.7% of total employment in Croatia.
Most models predict that climate change will create uncomfortably hot summers along the Adriatic coast which may cause many beach tourists to avoid these destinations. Instead, tourists will visit locations in Northern Europe which will become more attractive with climate change. However, the spring and autumn seasons are also expected to become more attractive for tourists at the Croatian coast. Coastal Zone and Sea-Level RiseGlobal sea level is expected to rise between 9 and 88 cm by 2100 – though large-scale melting of ice in the Antarctic or in Greenland could mean that sea level would rise much higher.
According to the approximation of "A Climate for Change" Human Development Report for Croatia, the total amount of land submerged with sea-level rise of 50 cm would be over 100 million square metres. With a sea-level rise of 88 cm, over 112 million square metres would be submerged. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about sea-level rise and it will occur slowly, meaning that there will be time to adapt. At the same time, plans for infrastructure and long-term investments should consider possible sea level rise. Particularly vulnerable areas to sea-level rise in Croatia are the Neretva Delta, the Krka River, Vrana Lake near Biograd, the island of Krapanj. |
Fishing and MaricultureMarine fish populations in the Adriatic are already showing significant fluctuations and changes in behaviour/migration patterns due to
climate. It is expected that climate change will change the growing season and rearing time for farmed fish such as tuna. In some cases this may require adaptation, but in others, it may increase the potential for aquaculture. In addition to the migration of existing species of commercial fish, there is the potential for increase of invasive species. Already, the invasive species such as Bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) and Groupers have had a large impact. While Groupers have become a marketable fish, Bluefish have had a very negative impact – especially in the Neretva River Estuary. Water ResourcesClimate change is expected to result in changes to evapotransporation, soil humidity,
ground water recharge, and the amount of water flowing through the rivers. Hydro-electric power production makes up half of electricity production in Croatia. Decreased river flow would lead to a reduction of hydro-electric power production resulting in significant extra costs (tens of millions of Euros) to replace the generating capacity if river flow is reduced. Additional natural resources such as wetlands services (flood protection, water filtration, etc.) could also be at risk in a drier future. |
AgricultureExtreme weather events such as droughts and hail have resulted in average losses of EUR 176 million per year from 2000-2007 - 0.6% of
national GDP, or 9.3% of GVA generated by the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector – this is more than the average value of subsidies in this sector during that time period. In the future, crop models predict that maize production will likely be affected by climate change – resulting in losses of between EUR 6-16 million in 2050 and EUR 31-43 million in 2100. Other crops may also face problems due to lack of water and extreme heat, though there may be advantages as well. There is not enough information available to predict the impacts for all the important crops in the future. Health ImpactsThe future health risks of climate change in Croatia are not fully understood because there has not been sufficient research. However,
the effects may include:
the heat wave. While heat related health problems may occur, deaths due to cold weather may decrease during the winter time. |